Global Crisis: Five Political Events In 2017 That May Lead To Global Crisis In 2018 And Further

2017 was eventful politically. Here are the top four political decisions/government policies that may take things to the south in the coming years leading to a global crisis.

1.Trump’s decision to withdraw from Paris Agreement

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Donald Trump once again proved that he is just a businessman and he doesn’t give a damn about the environment. On June 1, 2017, he announced that the United States is backing out from the 2015 Paris Agreement. Undeniably one of the most important international agreement. Which aims to tackle the global threat of climate change.

Why Donald Trump oppose The Paris Accord?

The justifications given by Trump administration is that the Paris Agreement is against United State’s Economical interests. The provisions of the agreement are killing jobs in US and at the same time beneficial to other countries. Trump also pointed out that the effect of the Paris accord is going to be very minimal. He said “Tiny, tiny amount.”

Do these justifications hold any value?

The answer is simply NO!

As per the Paris accord. Each party has to contribute to achieving the aim of the Agreement i.e. to keep global temperature rise under 2 degree Celsius. Meaning, transition to a sustainable lifestyle, cleaner economic development, reducing Emission Intensity of GDP etc. In one of his speech, Donald Trump said that the Agreement would cost “close to $3 trillion in lost GDP” . But studies by Resource For The Future shows otherwise. The study predicts that theĀ  United States GDP would only see a mere drop of 0.10 percent and 0.35 percent per year from now until 2025. Since this requirement is applicable to all party countries. The argument that Paris Agreement is against UnitedĀ  States Economic interest is baseless.

The claim that the Paris Agreement will result in loss of 2.7 million jobs by 2025 is widely criticized. Pointing out that the Study used an ambiguous and baseless scenario to calculate the job loss.

And the “Tiny, tiny amount ” according to Trump amounts to Nine-tenths of a degree Celcius. Which is huge on a global scale.

Implications:
Withdrawal by the US, second largest emitter of carbon dioxide behind China will adversely affect the global effort to control climate change, resulting in a global crisis.

With the withdrawal of US, China will take the leadership position.

Since almost 171 countries including the United State’s allies are part of this global effort, the withdrawal of US will pave way for more global powers like Russia, India, Brazil, UK to become key players in the global stage.

2.The North Korean Crisis

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North Korea hates Americans, that’s a well-known fact. It began back in the days when the US joined the Korean war and burned down North Korea. So what happened in 2017, that almost led the US to drop bombs on North Korea and vice versa?

  • 2017 witnessed a massive increase in the North Korean missile capability
  • Against global pressure, they test fired several missiles including an intercontinental ballistic missile. Which they claim to have the capability to reach anywhere in the world.
  • The White House felt the heat and President Trump made a statement that “They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen”. This statement kicked off a fierce war of words between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Trump.
  • From personal insults to size of their buttons, the verbal war continues and may escalate into a global crisis.

3.Attack on secularism in India

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India is a country with 1.3 billion and rising population. Thousands of languages and almost every religion exists in this Country. One of the fundamental principles that hold this mammoth democracy together is Secularism. 2017 witnessed a significant increase of Hindu nationalism under the present government, desiring to establish a Hindu land. There had been reports of several instances of violence by Hindu fundamentalists throughout the nation. Even government policies in the past year reflect Hindu ideologies.

Implications

  • About 180 million Muslims, 30 million Christians and several other religious minorities live peacefully with a majority Hindu population in India. That’s why the principle of secularism plays a key role. So the whole idea of imposing Hindu ideologies at a national level threatens the stability of this nation.
  • India is a rising economic superpower. And act as a countermeasure against rising Chinese influence in Asia. So if destabilization of India becomes a reality, it not only creates an economic crisis but a Geo-Political crisis as well.

4.Deteriorating US-Iran relationship

 

July 14, 2015, witnessed a historic nuclear deal. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action signed between Iran and the P5 +1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, UK, and the US). The deal aims to limit Irans’ nuclear programme and allows monitoring by these world powers. In exchange, the nuclear sanctions imposed on Iran will be lifted.

Like North Korea, Iran had a bad reputation when it comes to relationship with the western world. Their Uranium enrichment programmes, supposedly for peaceful purposes, the desire to build nuclear bombs which they denied made the western world especially the United States worried and there already existed a global crisis.

The JCPOA, is a sweet deal, a solution to all those worries. Iran even after all those hostilities towards the western world considered JCPOA as a chance to come forward and be a part of the global community.

So what happened in 2017?

October 13, 2017, President Trump threatened to terminate the deal and reimpose sanctions, stating Iran is not in compliance with the deal. Even though the final decision is not yet been made. This event had once again put the Iran – US relationship on the front page of global discussions.

Did Iran fail to comply with the Deal?

According to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran is complying with the terms of the deal. Iran had already shipped out all of their uranium stockpiles to Russia. Ditched their nuclear centrifuges and filled their nuclear reactor with concrete. They even wide opened the doors to their nuclear facilities for inspections. So basically everything was under control until October 13, 2017.

The decision attracted wide criticism from world powers, including the signatories to the deal. In light of earlier decisions by the Trump administration, such as the withdrawal from the Paris accord. Which practically sabotaged the global effort to control climate change. World communities are concerned about the future of the Iran Nuclear deal. This situation may escalate into a global crisis.

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